Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian paramilitary organisation Wagner , published an essay on Friday that criticised Russia’s “deep state.” According to Sky News, Prigozhin stated that Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive would be successful because Russia is in a state of “crisis.”
Possibility of Ukrainian Counteroffensive Success
According to the Telegraph, Prigozhin’s essay warned that Ukraine’s counter-offensive was likely to succeed because Russia’s military operations have been undermined by the “decadent elite.” He demanded that Russia commit to a decisive fight and urged Russians to disregard elites who want Russia to reduce its wartime losses. He believed that the outcome of the battle would either result in the defeat of Ukraine or a transitory Russian defeat that would catalyse Russia’s nationalist rebirth and set the stage for future victory.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, cautioned that some coverage of Prigozhin’s essay had been “miscontextualized,” and that much of his “idiosyncratic rhetorical and writing style” had been lost in translation from Russian to English. On Twitter, historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies Sergey Radchenko described the letter as “delirious and self-contradictory” but “nonetheless very interesting.” Radchenko stated that Prigozhin “implores Putin to abandon half-measures and concludes with the hope that a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive will lead to the final confrontation.”
Wagner Group’s Role and Ukrainian Counterattack
According to Insider, despite Prigozhin’s claims, the Wagner Group, which has lost more than 30,000 soldiers in Ukraine, has been working closely with the Russian military. The group has sustained “massive losses” and must rely on its elite combatants. Uncertainty surrounds the timetable of a counteroffensive announced by the Ukrainian leadership. According to the Telegraph, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, stated on Friday that the counter-offensive would begin “in the near future.”
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