As the year concludes, the question looms large over the corridors of European power — will the upcoming year usher in a positive transformation or a continuation of the same unfulfilled promises in EU-Turkey relations? Authors Christos Kourtelis and Caglar Ozturk dissect the complexities and uncertainties surrounding this crucial diplomatic relationship.
Erdogan’s Shifting Tone: A Prelude to Change?
In the lead-up to Turkey’s elections in May, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signaled a potential shift in his confrontational stance towards the EU. Expressing the desire for full EU membership, he urged the Union to expedite the process. However, given Erdoğan’s history of inconsistent words and actions, true progress requires tangible changes in Turkey’s foreign and domestic policies.
Frozen Progress: Urgency in Turkey’s Reforms
With Turkey’s accession process on hold since June 2018, the positive agenda initiated in October 2020 has struggled to yield substantive results. Threats and drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean strained relations, diverting discussions to pressing issues like migration, Customs Union modernization, and visa liberalization for Turkish citizens.
Piecemeal Progress Hindrance
Despite the European Council’s call for a positive agenda, Turkey’s piecemeal approach hampers progress. Failure to meet criteria outlined in the 2016 EU-Turkey Statement impedes visa liberalization. The slow reform process prompts EU institutions to suggest limited access, focusing on specific groups like students, entrepreneurs, and those with family ties.
Stalled Modernization: Customs Union Challenges
Discussions on modernizing the Customs Union (CU) faced interruptions due to Turkish provocations and trade barriers. The recent joint communication ties CU modernization to the resumption of Cyprus settlement talks, introducing a diplomatic challenge linked to Turkey’s advocacy for a two-state solution.
Migration and Credibility: A Delicate Balance
Turkey’s reluctance to accept irregular migrants strains EU-Turkey relations, with the pandemic cited as an excuse for the dysfunctional migration deal. Upholding commitments is crucial for Turkey’s international credibility, while Brussels must focus on critical issues such as economic growth, energy, and transport.
Low Expectations for 2024
As 2024 approaches, doubts linger regarding the sincerity of Turkey’s positive rhetoric. Erdoğan’s recent visit to Athens hints at change, but Brussels remains cautious. The joint communication underscores low expectations, emphasizing the need for substantial reforms to avert another cycle of blame and threats that could poison EU-Turkey relations.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Euronews.com
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