Iran’s Response to the Airstrikes
Following Israeli airstrikes, which the Iranian government characterized as causing “limited” damage, the situation in Iran remains allegedly stable. On Saturday morning, officials from Tehran downplayed the strikes, stating that they did not significantly impact national security. Reports from domestic media and close sources have described Israel’s operation as a failure, deflecting attention from the severity of the event.
Debunking Israeli Claims
In a three-phase operation, Israel claims to have targeted at least 20 military sites. However, Iranian sources dismissed reports suggesting that 140 Israeli fighter jets participated, labeling these claims as “exaggerated Israeli propaganda.” They attempted to portray Israeli leaders as operatives hiding in bunkers, supposedly fearful of any potential Iranian retaliation.
Government Communications and Censorship
Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokesperson for the Iranian government, emphasized the airstrikes’ limited repercussions while insisting that “the situation is normal.” Furthermore, the regime has taken measures to prevent images and videos of the aftermath from circulating internationally. The IRGC’s Organized Crime Investigation Centre warned citizens against sharing content with foreign media, threatening severe penalties for anyone disobedient.
Israel’s Strategic Decisions
Listening to the United States, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opted for a restrained response, targeting conventional military assets rather than nuclear facilities or oil installations. U.S. assurances sought by President Joe Biden have seemingly influenced this decision, as Biden’s administration urged Israel to avoid actions that could escalate tensions dramatically.
Potential for Further Retaliation
Previous analyses from U.S. media suggested that if Israel’s retaliatory actions remained limited, Iran might refrain from direct retaliation. Iranian officials indicated they would respond only if casualties were significant or extensive damage occurred. Conversely, if Israel confined its strikes to certain military bases and facilities, Iran might hold back on countermeasures.
Iran’s Calculated Position
Iran finds itself in a challenging situation, especially as its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah, are currently weakened. Realizing its military limitations in confronting Israel—backed by substantial U.S. military aid—Iran appears cautious. While the regime may not officially denounce its right to retaliate, an immediate response seems strategically unwise.
Propaganda and Damage Control
In the short term, Iranian media will likely promote a narrative of victory while downplaying the impact of Israel’s strikes, perhaps portraying claims of damage as fabricated. The regime may choose to hide any adverse effects on missile production or drone facilities, focusing instead on the calculated and limited nature of Israel’s operation as a means to stabilize public perception.
Future Outlook: Escalation or Restraint?
Iran is likely to maintain a façade of readiness for retaliation while delicately balancing tensions with Israel. With the upcoming U.S. elections looming, it is improbable that the White House would allow hostilities to escalate significantly. Iran may opt to stabilize the situation in Lebanon and Gaza, signaling a desire for calm. However, within Iran’s corridors of power, hardliners who thrive on conflict may still seek an all-out confrontation as a means of securing their political survival.
SOURCE: Ref Image from The Telegraph
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