Is a Breakthrough Possible in Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive?
As the casualties from Ukraine’s counter-offensive continue to mount, the question of whether a breakthrough is possible or if Russia’s defensive lines are impenetrable is being debated. Some soldiers and observers on the southern front express concerns that without more Western assistance, Ukraine may struggle to achieve victory. They cite the vast Russian minefields and the abundance of anti-tank guns and missile systems as significant obstacles. However, there are also those who believe that the opening phase of the counter-offensive is going according to plan and that breaching Russia’s defensive lines was never meant to be a swift process.
Different Perspectives on Russia’s Defensive Lines
Visiting different sections of the front and speaking with soldiers and experts, it becomes clear that there are varying perspectives on Russia’s defensive lines. Some view them as resilient but malleable, while others see them as prone to splintering but not collapsing entirely. There is also a glass theory, held by Western military analysts and generals, that predicts Russia’s defenses will shatter in the coming weeks or months, leading to significant territorial gains for Ukraine.
The Challenges and Realities
Soldiers closest to the frontlines tend to hold more pessimistic views, recognizing the challenges and sacrifices involved in achieving a breakthrough. However, they may lack a broader perspective of the entire military operation. Supporters of the glass theory argue for patience, acknowledging that Ukraine’s lack of airpower hinders its ability to swiftly destroy Russia’s operational system. Instead, ground-based missiles are being used, and Russian positions are attacked in multiple places to tie up enemy manpower and equipment.
Optimism and Patience
Despite the challenges, the dominant mood among Ukrainian soldiers and officials remains optimistic. They believe in the eventual breakthrough and express patience, knowing that time is needed for success. The counter-offensive strategy involves starving, stretching, and striking Russia’s forces, gradually weakening their combat effectiveness. While the outcome of the counter-offensive remains uncertain, there is a shared belief that patience and perseverance will ultimately lead to victory.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Le Monde
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