A Shift in Perspective on China’s Green Transition
In recent years, experts have shown an increasing sense of optimism regarding China’s transition to greener energy practices. The consensus among specialists indicates that China’s coal consumption could reach its peak as early as 2025. This positive outlook stems from a new study conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS), highlighting that 44% of surveyed experts foresee CO2 emissions leveling off by 2025 at the latest. This optimism is particularly compelling given that coal currently accounts for a staggering 80% of the nation’s fossil fuel emissions.
Signs of Improvement in Energy Transition
Recent findings reflect a dramatic change in expert sentiment over the past three years. For instance, a significant 52% anticipate that coal consumption will peak within the next two years. In stark contrast, only 20% predict this peak will occur later. As experts like Xunpeng Shi from ISETS point out, achieving carbon neutrality in a rapidly growing economy like China is a formidable challenge. Nevertheless, the tangible progress made in expanding clean energy deployment and transforming industrial practices is fueling hope for a brighter, sustainable future.
Increasing Confidence in Emission Forecasts
The trend of optimistic views is palpable, with a clear shift revealed in the data collected by CREA. While only 15% of experts believed that emissions would peak or have already peaked by 2025 in 2022, this percentage surged to 44% in 2024. The acceleration in solar and wind power capacity, alongside stricter regulations on fossil fuel generation, reinforces this trend. Moreover, 2024 saw electric vehicles rise to over 50% of vehicle sales for three consecutive months, underscoring a significant transformation in the automotive sector.
Challenges Looming Ahead
Despite the overall optimism, challenges remain on China’s path to reducing emissions. A growing number of experts express concern about the impacts of the economic landscape on the energy transition. Many believe that while the energy shift is progressing, the nation’s energy consumption continues to outstrip economic growth. CREA analysts caution that without clear guidance on China’s emission trajectory, there is a risk of emissions rising until 2030, followed by sluggish reductions thereafter. This scenario would jeopardize not only China’s climate goals but also global climate action.
The Road Ahead: Key National Climate Plans Needed
To ensure alignment with the Paris Agreement’s objectives, China must enhance the pace of renewable energy initiatives and steer economic development towards less energy-intensive models. The anticipation surrounding the forthcoming national climate plan, to be released by February next year, has raised hopes among experts. It will be crucial for the plan to detail and strengthen China’s commitment to emission reductions over the next decade post-peak. With clear and ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs), China can help maintain a trajectory towards achieving global climate targets.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Carbon Brief
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