As the seven-day ultimatum given by West African leaders to the military in Niger to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum comes to an end, both sides face critical decisions. Last Sunday, the regional bloc Ecowas, led by President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, issued the ultimatum, threatening possible use of force if constitutional order was not restored.
- Possibility of Deadline Extension: One option is for Ecowas leaders to extend the deadline, but this risks being perceived as a climbdown. To save face, they could attribute the extension to progress in diplomatic efforts and the need for more time. However, current Ecowas mediation efforts have not yielded significant results, as a recent delegation to Niger returned with little to show for it.
- Agreement on a Transition Timetable: To deescalate tensions, the junta and Ecowas may agree on a timetable for a return to democratic rule. This could involve releasing President Bazoum and other political detainees to facilitate ongoing talks. Demands for a peaceful resolution have come from parties condemning the coup, drawing on past democratic transitions in neighboring Sahel region countries like Mali and Burkina Faso.
- Potential for Military Intervention: While Ecowas did not explicitly state the use of force, Nigerian officials have described it as a “last resort.” President Tinubu mentioned the possibility of military intervention “to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant.” In the past, Ecowas has used military force to restore constitutional order, as seen in The Gambia in 2017 when Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election.
However, the decision on military intervention presents significant challenges. Niger’s geographical size makes sending troops a complex task compared to The Gambia’s limited territory. Nigeria, leading the effort to reinstate President Bazoum, faces its own security issues at home, making a significant troop deployment a risky proposition. Additionally, both Mali and Burkina Faso have warned that military intervention in Niger would be viewed as a “declaration of war,” with a potential for a regional conflict.
Regional ties between Nigeria and Niger, with shared historical and ethnic connections, may influence the willingness of Nigerian troops to engage in an invasion. Amid calls for restraint from Algeria, China, and Russia, Ecowas defense chiefs have prepared a detailed plan for military intervention for regional leaders to consider. Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin have expressed readiness to send troops to Niger if Ecowas decides on such action.
While a peaceful solution is the preferred outcome, Ecowas seeks to demonstrate its resolve to prevent further coups in the region, highlighting the complexity and high stakes involved in the situation.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Reuters
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