A Rising Crisis in Sudan
The ongoing turmoil in Sudan has started drawing the eyes of the world, especially from countries eager to capitalize on the chaos. In January 2025, the Biden administration officially accused the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of genocide while Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) regained control over Khartoum and neighboring Gezirah State. With more sanctions aimed at SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the international community is taking a more pronounced interest in the conflict. Experts note a possible shift in fortunes for the SAF, causing speculation about the future political landscape in Sudan.
The Worsening Conflict Dynamics
The road to the current conflict dates back to the ousting of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Following his removal, Sudan oscillated between military and civilian governments, with SAF and RSF’s uneasy alliance eventually dissolving into violence. Analyst Kholood Khair warned international diplomats about impending war just weeks before fighting ignited in April 2023. Despite evident tensions escalating in Khartoum, foreign governments concentrated more on their agendas, missing warning signs that led to the outbreak of violent clashes.
External Actors and Their Interests
Countries such as Egypt, the UAE, and Russia have actively engaged in Sudan’s conflict for several reasons, primarily revolving around military support and lucrative resources. The SAF has historically received backing from Egypt, whereas the RSF has formed ties with the UAE, which relies on its troops in the Saudi-led efforts against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The UAE’s relationship extends beyond mere military interaction; it has entered lucrative gold trade agreements with RSF-controlled areas, highlighting a mercantilist motivation entwined with the conflict.
Geopolitical Stakes and Resources
Sudan’s geographical significance has attracted foreign actors keen on expanding their influence. The UAE aims to secure strategic ports while potentially undermining rival Saudi ambitions, effectively engaging in a form of neo-imperialism. Iran has similarly positioned itself, backing SAF in hopes of accessing critical maritime routes. In the midst of this, Russia plays a dual role, supporting both factions while leveraging the chaos for economic gains, particularly through gold extraction.
The Road Ahead
As various external influences shape the conflict, recent sanction declarations by the U.S. may prove significant but, as observed by experts, could also complicate peace efforts. With the potential for militarization escalating, the humanitarian crisis looms large over the Sudanese population. Observers like Khair warn that all parties involved bear responsibility for civilian casualties, and the continuing war of attrition could yield devastating effects. The outcome of these external interventions and the subsequent civilian plight remains uncertain but bears heavy implications for not only Sudan but the broader geopolitical landscape.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Human Rights Watch
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