The German Ministry of Defence has unintentionally revealed a classified plan outlining preparations for a potential all-out war between NATO and Russia, should Russian aggression escalate. The leaked document, obtained by German newspaper Bild, unveils an “exercise scenario” envisioning a significant build-up of Russian forces in Belarus and Kaliningrad, exerting pressure on the border with Poland, prompting NATO’s deployment to Eastern Europe.
Escalation Forecast: Russian Aggression and Hybrid Warfare
The German plan outlines a hypothetical escalation, starting with a mobilization of 200,000 Russian recruits in February for a renewed offensive in Ukraine, leading to significant advances by June. Subsequently, Russia would initiate hybrid warfare in July, involving cyber-attacks in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, exploiting false narratives about Russian-speaking minorities facing unfair treatment. This narrative would then justify the deployment of Russian troops to Belarus and western Russia by September, with potential targets in the Suwalki Gap, a vulnerable strip of land between Poland and Lithuania.
NATO’s Response: Heightened Tensions and Delayed Reaction
Anticipating a response, the German government expects NATO to deploy 300,000 troops to its eastern borders to deter Russian aggression. However, the scenario suggests that NATO may not react until early 2025, possibly influenced by the outcome of the US presidential election on November 5, where a potential re-election of NATO skeptic Donald Trump could play a role.
Official Response: Germany Clarifies Scenario Considerations
A spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defence emphasized that the leaked document is part of routine military planning, exploring various scenarios, even if deemed unlikely. The spokesperson stressed that considering different possibilities is an integral aspect of military training, aiming to be prepared for potential challenges.
Regional Concerns: Sweden’s Warning Amid NATO Aspirations
The leaking of Germany’s plan coincides with Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin warning citizens about the potential prospect of war. While Sweden is not yet a NATO member, it is in the process of joining, a decision spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As Sweden awaits approval from the Turkish parliament and the government of Hungary, regional tensions remain high, and the international community closely monitors developments amid geopolitical uncertainties.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Bloomberg.com
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