Heightened Tensions and Nuclear Threats
Recent developments have escalated tensions between Russia and the West, particularly following the launch of a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead into Ukraine. Moscow’s aggressive stance has intensified scrutiny of its nuclear arsenal. President Vladimir Putin claims this unprecedented launch of the “Oreshnik” missile is a direct response to Ukraine’s use of US and UK-made missiles to attack deep within Russian territory. He further warned that military facilities in Western nations supporting Ukraine could become legitimate targets for Russian strikes.
Changes in Nuclear Doctrine
Just days prior to the missile launch, Putin approved significant changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The revised guidelines allow for a nuclear response to a conventional attack on Russian soil. While US officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, downplay the immediate threat of a nuclear strike, experts caution that these recent shifts may increase the likelihood of nuclear options being considered by Russia.
Size and Composition of Russia’s Arsenal
Russia possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with an estimated 5,580 warheads, accounting for 47% of the global total, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). However, only about 1,710 of these warheads are operationally deployed. This places Russia slightly ahead of the United States, which has around 1,670 deployed warheads. The deployed weapons include approximately 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and around 200 stationed at heavy bomber bases. Although significant expansion is not currently evident, FAS suggests a potential increase in future capabilities with upgrades to multi-warhead systems.
Triggers for Nuclear Response
The conditions under which Russia might resort to using nuclear weapons have evolved considerably. Previously, the 2020 doctrine limited nuclear usage primarily to circumstances where the state’s existence faced grave threats. The revamped guidelines now indicate that nuclear weapons could be deployed in response to conventional attacks on Russian territory, aggression from a non-nuclear state with nuclear backing, and attacks on Belarus’ territory, reflecting a close military partnership with its ally, President Lukashenko.
Western Reactions and Concerns
Western leaders have had mixed reactions to Putin’s modifications to the nuclear protocol. Many dismiss it as mere posturing, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock asserting that Germany and its allies refuse to be intimidated. Yet, after Russia’s utilization of a hypersonic ballistic missile in a recent Ukrainian attack, alarm bells have rung throughout Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledged the seriousness of the situation, while NATO’s Secretary-General reportedly traveled to meet with President-elect Donald Trump to address the crisis. An extraordinary NATO meeting is scheduled in Brussels to deliberate on the implications and responses to this escalating conflict.
SOURCE: Ref Image from Reuters
Whether writing about complex technical topics or breaking news stories, my writing is always clear, concise, and engaging. My dedication to my craft and passion for storytelling have earned me a reputation as a highly respected article writer.